While Chinese A-shares were on a five-day holiday break during the 2025 Lunar New Year, global financial markets remained open and delivered strong performance across multiple asset classes. From record highs in U.S. equities to surging commodities and a major milestone for Bitcoin, international investors witnessed a dynamic and bullish market environment.
U.S. Stock Indices Reach New All-Time Highs
During the A-share market closure, all three major U.S. stock indices hit fresh record highs. On February 11, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached an intraday peak of 31,543.82. The S&P 500 closed at 3,937.23 on February 12 — a new high — while the Nasdaq Composite climbed to 14,109.12 on February 10.
This surge was fueled by robust capital inflows. According to Bank of America, global equity funds attracted a record $58.1 billion in the week ending February 10, with $36.3 billion flowing into U.S. equities — the highest weekly inflow ever recorded. Notably, large-cap U.S. stock funds absorbed $25.1 billion during that period.
👉 Discover how global capital flows are shaping today’s investment landscape.
Beyond the U.S., Japan's Nikkei 225 index briefly breached the 30,000 mark on February 15 — its highest level since August 1990. This rally followed stronger-than-expected economic data: Japan’s Q4 2024 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 12.7%, surpassing forecasts of 9.5%. Meanwhile, the broader Topix index also reached a 30-year high.
Jeffrey Young, former global head of FX at Citigroup and CEO of ShenShu Macro, explained this broad market strength:
“The current market upswing is tied to the unique nature of the pandemic-induced recession — deep but not broad. Economic shutdowns caused sharp GDP contractions, but underlying fundamentals remain sound. There’s no widespread imbalance like excessive credit growth or deflationary overcapacity.”
He added that full economic recovery hasn’t been priced in yet: “In most G10 countries, growth remains below long-term trends. Excess capacity persists. While some sectors may be overvalued, equities broadly aren’t fully reflecting recovery potential. Bond yields have room to rise further.”
Commodities Rally Across Key Markets
Global commodities posted strong gains during the holiday week, driven by supply constraints and rising demand expectations.
Crude oil extended its rally as OPEC+ production cuts continued to tighten supply. By February 15, WTI crude hovered around $60.64 per barrel, while Brent crude approached $63.33 — both levels unseen since December 2019. Since April 2020, OPEC+ nations have collectively cut output by 2.1 billion barrels.
Industrial and precious metals also surged. Palladium futures broke above $1,300 per ounce for the first time since 2014, while LME tin futures rose over 4%, hitting their highest level since 2013.
Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s quantitative strategist, believes a new commodity supercycle has begun. He cites post-pandemic economic recovery, ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, a weakening U.S. dollar, rising inflation expectations, and green energy transitions as key drivers.
“We believe inflation trends are reversing — a development that poses significant risks and opportunities across multi-asset portfolios,” Kolanovic noted.
Institutional Investors Shift Focus: Haidian and Bridgewater Strategies
Institutional investment moves revealed shifting priorities among top global funds.
Haidian Capital disclosed its Q4 2024 SEC filing on February 13, showing its U.S. portfolio now includes 95 companies, up from 54 at the end of 2023, with total holdings valued at $12.5 billion. While down slightly from Q3’s $13.2 billion, the strategic focus remains clear: healthcare, hard tech, and consumer sectors lead its investment themes.
Notably, Chinese ADRs account for nearly 30% of holdings by count and over 60% by market value. Key long-term positions include Pinduoduo, BeiGene, JD.com, iQiyi, Tan Holdings Biotech, and Bilibili.
Despite trimming stakes in Alibaba, XPeng, NIO, and Li Auto — all of which saw significant price appreciation in late 2024 — Haidian maintains a bullish outlook on upstream and midstream segments of the new energy chain, particularly new materials and battery technologies.
Pinduoduo emerged as Haidian’s top holding after a 23,916-share increase in ADRs during Q4. The stock gained 165.12% between Q4 2024 and mid-February 2025. It also entered Bridgewater Associates’ top ten holdings and became the largest position for Jinglin Asset Management.
Bridgewater, the world’s largest hedge fund, released its Q4 report on February 12, revealing aggressive buying in consumer stocks. Four of its top five purchases were consumer firms: Walmart, Pinduoduo, Procter & Gamble, and Coca-Cola, along with iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF.
The fund also increased its stakes in Alibaba (up 19%) and NIO (up 25%), though it reduced exposure to iShares China Large-Cap ETF.
Ray Dalio, Bridgewater’s founder, recently told the Financial Times that China’s financial markets gained prominence in 2024 due to resilient economic performance during global crises — attracting substantial foreign capital inflows.
👉 See how institutional moves can signal major market shifts before they happen.
Bitcoin Breaks $50,000: Market Enters Euphoric Phase
Cryptocurrencies continued their upward trajectory during the Lunar New Year break. On February 14, Bitcoin reached $49,375.94 — a new high — before briefly pulling back by 5.6%. Two days later, it crossed $50,000 for the first time.
Mainstream adoption accelerated: BNY Mellon announced it would offer custody and transfer services for digital assets like Bitcoin. Mastercard revealed plans to support select cryptocurrencies on its network in 2025, though it cautioned that implementation would require extensive work.
Bloomberg reported that Morgan Stanley’s $150 billion Counterpoint Global fund is evaluating Bitcoin investments. Most notably, Bitcoin appeared on Bank of America’s official asset return tracker for the first time — delivering a 65.4% return from January to February 12, the highest among all asset classes.
William, Chief Researcher at OKEx研究院 (OKEx Research Institute), warned of growing speculative risks:
“After Bitcoin surpassed $20,000 in December, retail investors flooded the market. Exchange traffic spiked dramatically — some platforms even experienced outages. The investor base has shifted structurally from institutional dominance to retail-led participation.”
He emphasized caution:
“Speculation now drives the market. Sentiment is overly enthusiastic. The bubble has grown large enough to pose serious risk. Investors should remain rational, exercise restraint, and avoid excessive leverage.”
👉 Learn how to navigate volatile crypto markets with disciplined strategies.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why did global markets rise while A-shares were closed?
A: With no trading in mainland China during the Lunar New Year holiday, global markets continued reacting to macroeconomic data, vaccine rollouts, stimulus measures, and institutional fund flows — all contributing to gains in U.S. stocks, commodities, and crypto.
Q: Is the Bitcoin rally sustainable after breaking $50,000?
A: While adoption by major financial institutions supports long-term legitimacy, short-term price action reflects heightened speculation. Sustainability depends on macro conditions, regulatory clarity, and whether investor behavior shifts back toward fundamentals.
Q: What does a commodity supercycle mean for investors?
A: A supercycle implies prolonged price increases across raw materials due to structural demand-supply imbalances. Investors may benefit through energy stocks, mining equities, or commodity-linked ETFs — but should monitor inflation and central bank responses closely.
Q: Why are hedge funds like Bridgewater buying consumer stocks?
A: Rising consumer confidence, pent-up demand post-pandemic, and strong balance sheets among retail giants make consumer stocks attractive. These firms also offer relative stability amid economic reopening phases.
Q: Did Haidian completely exit Chinese EV stocks?
A: No. While Haidian sold positions in XPeng, NIO, and Li Auto after sharp rallies, it maintains a positive long-term view on the new energy ecosystem — especially in battery technology and advanced materials.
Q: How might rising bond yields affect stock markets?
A: Higher yields increase borrowing costs and can reduce equity valuations, especially for growth stocks. However, moderate increases often reflect stronger economic outlooks — potentially supporting cyclical sectors like industrials and financials.
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