The resilience of long-term Bitcoin investors continues to shape the asset’s market dynamics, with data revealing that buyers from the 2020–2021 bull cycle still hold onto nearly 16% of the total Bitcoin supply. Despite a 165% surge in BTC’s price year-to-date in 2023, these steadfast holders—often referred to as hodlers—show no signs of capitulating.
This enduring commitment underscores a fundamental shift in Bitcoin ownership, where long-term conviction outweighs short-term profit-taking. As macroeconomic conditions evolve and institutional interest grows, the behavior of these persistent holders offers valuable insight into market sentiment and potential future price trajectories.
Long-Term Holders Defy Market Volatility
Long-term holders (LTHs) are proving more resilient than ever, maintaining their positions despite the dramatic price appreciation seen throughout 2023. A key metric illuminating this trend is HODL Waves, an on-chain analytical tool that categorizes Bitcoin’s circulating supply based on how long individual coins have remained unmoved.
According to data from Look Into Bitcoin, the segment of Bitcoin untouched for two to three years has seen a significant increase in its share of the total supply. In December 2022, this cohort held approximately 8% of all BTC; by late 2023, that figure had more than doubled to over 15%.
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This means that a large portion of investors who bought Bitcoin between December 2020 and December 2021 have not sold—a remarkable feat given the asset’s rise from around $29,000 at the time to over $48,000 in 2023.
The Realized Capitalization HODL Waves further reinforce this trend, showing increased weight in the two-to-three-year age band. These metrics account not just for volume but also for the dollar value of coins held, indicating that substantial capital remains locked in long-term wallets.
Despite BTC/USD climbing 165% year-to-date—data confirmed by Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView—the psychological threshold for profit realization among LTHs appears to be much higher than in previous cycles.
Philip Swift, creator of Look Into Bitcoin, frequently highlights this growing tenacity among veteran investors. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), he noted:
"Bitcoin’s 1-year HODL wave has barely moved at all."
This observation reflects a broader pattern: seasoned Bitcoiners are increasingly reluctant to sell, expecting far greater gains before exiting their positions.
Why Aren’t Long-Term Holders Selling?
Several factors contribute to the unwavering stance of long-term Bitcoin holders:
- Stronger belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition as digital gold and a hedge against inflation.
- Reduced influence from speculative hype, with many early adopters now viewing BTC as a generational wealth transfer vehicle.
- Improved custody solutions, reducing fears of loss or theft and enabling safer long-term storage.
Moreover, historical patterns suggest that major sell-offs typically occur only after prices reach new all-time highs and sentiment turns euphoric. With many investors still recovering from the 2022 bear market, current price levels may not yet trigger mass profit-taking.
Short-Term Traders Take Profits Amid Price Surge
In contrast to the stoic LTHs, short-term holders (STHs) and speculative traders have been more active in realizing gains. When Bitcoin crossed the $40,000 mark in early 2023, it triggered a wave of profit-taking, with approximately **$4.5 billion worth of BTC sold within days**.
This behavior aligns with typical market psychology: short-term investors tend to react quickly to price milestones, especially after prolonged downturns. However, their impact on overall market direction remains limited due to the overwhelming dominance of long-term supply control.
As of December 6, 2023, long-term holders controlled 14.92 million BTC, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. This represents nearly 76% of the total circulating supply, just shy of the all-time high of 76.3% recorded in late November.
Such concentration suggests that a relatively small portion of Bitcoin is available for trading at any given time, increasing the potential for volatility when supply does come online.
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Market Implications of Rising HODL Rates
The growing percentage of Bitcoin held by long-term investors has several important implications:
- Reduced circulating supply: With fewer coins available for sale, even moderate buying pressure can drive significant price increases.
- Greater resistance to market manipulation: Large-scale dumps are less likely when most coins are held by committed believers.
- Stronger network fundamentals: Persistent holding behavior signals confidence in Bitcoin’s utility and scarcity.
These dynamics echo patterns seen in previous cycles, where extended accumulation phases preceded explosive bull runs. The current environment—marked by macro uncertainty, rising institutional adoption, and growing regulatory clarity—may further incentivize holding behavior.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What are HODL Waves?
HODL Waves is an on-chain metric that segments Bitcoin’s supply based on how long each coin has gone without being transferred. It helps identify whether coins are being held long-term or actively traded.
Why do long-term holders matter?
Long-term holders stabilize the market by reducing selling pressure. Their continued ownership often signals strong conviction in Bitcoin’s future value, which can influence broader investor sentiment.
How much of Bitcoin is currently held long-term?
As of late 2023, approximately 76% of Bitcoin’s total supply is held by long-term investors—those who haven’t moved their coins in at least 155 days.
What causes short-term profit-taking?
Short-term traders often sell after significant price increases, especially when key psychological levels like $40,000 or $50,000 are reached. Events such as halvings or macroeconomic shifts can also trigger selling waves.
Could increased hodling lead to higher prices?
Yes. When a large portion of supply is locked up, even modest demand increases can result in sharp price rallies due to limited liquidity.
Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
Market timing is inherently risky. However, periods of strong hodling often precede bullish breakouts. Investors should conduct thorough research and consider dollar-cost averaging into positions.
The Road Ahead: Scarcity Meets Conviction
The growing dominance of long-term holders signals a maturing Bitcoin ecosystem—one where speculation gives way to strategic accumulation. With buyers from the 2020–2021 cycle still sitting on their positions, the market is witnessing a rare alignment of scarcity, conviction, and structural strength.
As we move deeper into 2025, these hodling patterns could become even more pronounced, especially leading up to the next Bitcoin halving event. For observers and investors alike, understanding these behavioral trends is crucial for navigating the evolving landscape.
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The message from long-term holders is clear: they’re not selling until Bitcoin goes much higher. And until that changes, upward momentum may continue to build beneath the surface.
Keywords: Bitcoin, HODL Waves, long-term holders, on-chain data, BTC supply, Bitcoin price analysis, hodling behavior, short-term traders