The Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) token has been quietly building momentum in recent weeks, catching the attention of traders and analysts alike. With a 3.34% gain over the past 24 hours and a cumulative 6.86% rise in recent weeks, HBAR is showing signs of sustained upward pressure. More importantly, technical patterns and on-chain metrics suggest that a breakout toward $0.42 could be on the horizon—if it clears one final hurdle.
This potential surge isn’t just speculative noise; it’s backed by a confluence of technical signals pointing to growing bullish momentum. At the heart of this movement lies a critical resistance level that could determine whether HBAR continues its climb or stalls in its tracks.
👉 Discover how market patterns are setting up the next big move for HBAR.
The Inverse Head-and-Shoulders Pattern: A Bullish Signal Takes Shape
At the time of writing, HBAR’s price action is forming what analysts recognize as an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern—a well-known technical formation that typically precedes a significant upward reversal after a downtrend.
This pattern consists of three troughs:
- The left shoulder (a drop and partial recovery),
- The head (a deeper drop, forming the lowest point),
- And the right shoulder (a shallower decline, signaling weakening selling pressure).
The “neckline” connects the peaks between these troughs and acts as a key resistance level. A confirmed breakout above this neckline would validate the pattern and open the door for substantial gains.
For HBAR, a successful breach of this resistance could trigger a rally of up to 37.89%, potentially pushing the price to $0.429—a level not seen in months. While short-term consolidation near the neckline is possible, the overall structure suggests that buyers are gaining control.
Technical Indicators Confirm Growing Bullish Momentum
Beyond chart patterns, momentum indicators are adding weight to the bullish case for HBAR.
Parabolic SAR: Dots Below Price Signal Uptrend
The Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) indicator is currently showing dotted markers positioned below HBAR’s price candles—a strong signal of an ongoing uptrend. When these dots remain beneath the price, it indicates that upward momentum is intact and likely to continue.
If this configuration holds, especially during minor pullbacks, it reinforces the idea that each dip is being bought aggressively, setting the stage for higher highs.
Bull Bear Power: Six Green Bars in a Row
The Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator has displayed six consecutive green histogram bars, underscoring consistent buying pressure. Each green bar reflects that the current price is significantly above the 13-period exponential moving average (EMA), indicating strong bullish dominance.
An extension of this trend—more green bars appearing—would further confirm trader confidence and increase the probability of a sustained rally beyond $0.40.
On-Chain Data Reveals Rising Market Conviction
While technical analysis paints an optimistic picture, on-chain metrics provide real-time insight into trader behavior—and they’re telling a similar story.
Open Interest Surges by Nearly 10%
Over the past 24 hours, HBAR’s Open Interest (OI) jumped by 9.90%, reaching $269.71 million. This surge indicates growing participation in HBAR derivatives markets, with more traders opening leveraged positions.
Crucially, this rise in OI coincides with price appreciation and a positive funding rate of 0.0125%, suggesting that long positions dominate the market. In futures trading, a positive funding rate means longs pay shorts—a sign of strong bullish sentiment.
👉 See how rising open interest can fuel the next leg of HBAR’s rally.
Exchange Netflows: A Temporary Speed Bump
Despite strong bullish signals, there has been a brief pause in momentum due to positive exchange netflows. Recently, $1.79 million worth of HBAR was transferred to exchanges—an action typically associated with selling pressure.
When large volumes move to exchanges, it often precedes profit-taking or short-term sell-offs, which can delay breakouts. However, this doesn’t necessarily negate the broader trend.
In fact, if these inflows are followed by negative netflows—indicating users are withdrawing HBAR from exchanges to hold long-term—it would signal renewed accumulation behavior and could reignite upward momentum.
Key Takeaways: What Traders Should Watch
The path to $0.42 hinges on one decisive factor: breaking above the neckline resistance in the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Until that happens, caution remains warranted—even as multiple indicators align in favor of bulls.
Traders should monitor:
- Price action around the neckline,
- Sustained Parabolic SAR support below candles,
- Continued green bars on Bull Bear Power,
- Open Interest trends and funding rates,
- And exchange netflow direction.
A confirmed breakout with strong volume would likely attract institutional and algorithmic buyers, accelerating gains.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the significance of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern for HBAR?
A: This pattern suggests a potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish. If HBAR breaks above the neckline resistance with volume, it could trigger a rally toward $0.42 or higher.
Q: How much could HBAR rise if it breaks resistance?
A: Analysts estimate a potential upside of 37.89%, which would push HBAR’s price to approximately $0.429, assuming technical patterns play out as expected.
Q: What does rising Open Interest mean for HBAR?
A: Increasing Open Interest alongside price gains indicates new money entering the market, mostly on the long side. It reflects growing trader confidence and can amplify future price movements.
Q: Why did HBAR’s rally stall recently?
A: A recent transfer of $1.79 million worth of HBAR to exchanges introduced short-term selling pressure, temporarily slowing momentum. Such moves are common before major breakouts.
Q: Is the current funding rate bullish for HBAR?
A: Yes. A positive funding rate of 0.0125% means long-position holders are paying shorts to maintain leverage—indicating strong bullish sentiment in the derivatives market.
Q: What should I watch for next in HBAR’s price action?
A: Focus on whether HBAR can close above the neckline resistance with strong volume and whether exchange netflows turn negative—both are strong confirmation signals for a sustained rally.
👉 Stay ahead of the breakout with real-time data and trading tools.
Final Thoughts
HBAR is at a pivotal juncture. With technical patterns aligning, momentum indicators flashing green, and on-chain data revealing growing conviction, the stage is set for a potential breakout.
The key resistance level remains the final gatekeeper to $0.42. While short-term volatility may persist, the broader signals suggest that bulls are in control—and a decisive move higher could come sooner than expected.
For traders and investors alike, monitoring both price action and on-chain behavior will be essential in navigating the next phase of HBAR’s journey.
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