Over the past three months, Bitcoin (BTC) has surged in a powerful rally that captivated traders and investors worldwide. However, recent signals suggest this momentum may be cooling. With buying pressure weakening and more traders opting to lock in profits, analysts at Bitfinex have observed early signs that Bitcoin’s rapid ascent could be entering a temporary pause.
👉 Discover how market cycles shape Bitcoin's next major move.
In their latest market report released Monday, Bitfinex analysts noted: "Momentum is starting to decay for the first time during this uptrend." This observation marks a notable shift in sentiment after weeks of relentless upward movement driven by institutional inflows and growing macro optimism.
From $73K to $107K: A Rapid Surge Loses Steam
According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin dropped to a year-to-date low of $73,273 on April 9 before climbing nearly 41% to reach $107,380 at the time of writing. This sharp rebound was fueled by strong demand, especially following the approval and launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier in the year.
Yet now, signs point to a potential consolidation phase. Order flow analytics and on-chain metrics indicate that BTC may be forming a local top rather than continuing its so-called "vertical acceleration" — a term used to describe explosive, near-parabolic price growth often seen in mature bull markets.
"Spot trading volume has cooled, active buy-side pressure is fading, and profit-taking has intensified — particularly among short-term holders who entered below $80,000," the Bitfinex team explained.
These traders, having ridden the wave from lower entry points, are now cashing out, which naturally creates selling pressure. On-chain data shows increased movement from wallets that held BTC for less than 155 days — a clear signal of short-term holder behavior influencing market dynamics.
Why ETF Inflows Remain Critical for Bitcoin’s Next Leg
While short-term volatility rises, long-term momentum still hinges on sustained institutional demand — particularly through spot Bitcoin ETFs. Analysts agree that consistent net inflows into these products are essential to propel Bitcoin beyond current resistance levels.
Data from Farside Investors reveals that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded 14 consecutive days of positive net inflows since June 9, accumulating a total of $4.63 billion by June 27. One standout week saw $2.2 billion in new capital entering the ecosystem — a figure economist Timothy Peterson described as "huge."
Peterson also forecasts continued strength ahead: "There’s a 70% probability of next week’s flows being positive, which historically correlates with upward price pressure."
This institutional appetite acts as a foundational support layer for Bitcoin’s valuation. As traditional finance increasingly embraces digital assets, ETFs serve as the primary bridge between Wall Street and the crypto economy.
👉 See how institutional adoption is reshaping the future of digital assets.
Macroeconomic Crossroads: Fed Decision Looms Large
Beyond ETF flows, macroeconomic factors will play a decisive role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory over the coming weeks. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s July 30 interest rate decision.
Lower interest rates typically benefit risk-on assets like Bitcoin by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding investments. Currently, the CME FedWatch Tool estimates a 19% chance of a rate cut at that meeting — modest, but not negligible.
Even without an immediate cut, any dovish tone from Fed officials could boost market confidence and reignite buying interest. Conversely, hawkish commentary might prolong consolidation or trigger short-term pullbacks.
Despite near-term uncertainty, Bitfinex analysts emphasize that broader market structure remains robust. Higher-timeframe support levels are intact, and there’s no widespread capitulation — suggesting that this pause may simply be part of a healthy maturation process.
Long-Term Holders Hold the Key to Sustained Growth
Not all analysts are cautious. Some remain bullish, viewing this period as a necessary consolidation before the next leg up.
Economist Donald Dean stated: "Bitcoin is preparing to break out upward on a volume platform through tight consolidation." He believes current price action reflects accumulation rather than reversal.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, offers a compelling narrative: despite strong institutional FOMO (fear of missing out), Bitcoin’s price growth has been constrained by persistent selling from long-term holders.
"People wonder why Bitcoin has lingered around $100K despite massive institutional buying — the answer lies in long-term holders offloading to Wall Street," Edwards explained. Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, many early adopters and whales have been gradually "dumping positions" into institutional demand.
This dynamic creates a tug-of-war between new buyers and seasoned holders taking profits. Once long-term selling pressure subsides — often signaled by declining exchange inflows and reduced on-chain movement — upward momentum tends to resume with greater force.
👉 Learn what on-chain signals reveal about Bitcoin’s next breakout.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does "vertical acceleration" mean in Bitcoin markets?
A: It refers to a phase where Bitcoin's price rises sharply in a near-vertical pattern, typically driven by intense institutional demand and low supply availability — often occurring late in bull cycles.
Q: Why is profit-taking increasing among short-term holders?
A: Traders who bought below $80,000 have seen significant gains. As prices approach $110K, it becomes rational to secure profits, especially amid uncertain macro conditions.
Q: How do ETF inflows affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: Consistent ETF inflows signal sustained institutional demand, which absorbs available supply and creates structural buying pressure — a key driver of long-term price appreciation.
Q: Are we in a bear market if Bitcoin stops rising?
A: Not necessarily. A consolidation or sideways movement after a strong rally is normal market behavior. It allows for healthy reaccumulation before the next potential surge.
Q: What happens when long-term holders stop selling?
A: Reduced selling pressure from long-term investors often precedes major price breakouts, as supply dries up while demand remains strong or increases.
Q: Should I sell Bitcoin now due to recent stagnation?
A: This article does not provide investment advice. Every decision should be based on personal research, risk tolerance, and financial goals. Market pauses are common and don’t always indicate reversal.
Bitcoin may have paused its vertical climb for now, but underlying fundamentals — including strong ETF demand, resilient market structure, and evolving macro conditions — suggest the broader uptrend remains intact. The current phase appears less about reversal and more about transition — setting the stage for what could be the next powerful chapter in Bitcoin’s 2025 journey.