The price of Bitcoin (BTC) surged by nearly 8% over the past week, reaching an all-time high of $99,655 on November 22, 2024. Following this peak, the flagship cryptocurrency has seen a minor pullback, trading around $98,200 in the last 48 hours. While momentum remains strong, growing speculation suggests a significant price correction could be on the horizon—especially after an extended rally that lifted BTC over 60% from early October levels.
Market analysts are now closely monitoring key technical indicators that hint at a potential reversal. With investor sentiment bordering on euphoria and multiple overbought signals flashing across charts, the stage may be set for a short-term downturn.
Why Bitcoin Must Break $100,535 to Avoid a Correction
On November 23, well-known crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared a compelling market outlook on X (formerly Twitter), pointing to a developing sell signal on Bitcoin’s 12-hour chart. Using the TD Sequential technical indicator—a popular tool for identifying trend exhaustion—Martinez highlighted that Bitcoin is showing signs of an impending price drop.
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The TD Sequential has historically been effective in forecasting short-term reversals, particularly after strong upward moves. In this case, the signal suggests that unless Bitcoin closes above $100,535 on the 12-hour chart, a corrective phase is likely to unfold.
This prediction aligns with broader market dynamics. Since early October, when BTC was trading near $60,500, the asset has gained over 61.76%, fueling concerns about overheating. Rapid appreciation often leads to profit-taking, especially when metrics point to extreme bullishness.
Overbought Conditions Signal Caution
One of the most telling signs comes from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has remained in the overbought zone (above 70) for an extended period. While not a definitive sell signal on its own, prolonged RSI overbought conditions increase the likelihood of a pullback as traders lock in gains.
Additionally, the Fear & Greed Index for Bitcoin recently hit 94, its highest level in 4.5 years. Readings above 75 indicate "extreme greed," reflecting widespread optimism—but also caution. Historically, such elevated sentiment has preceded sharp corrections as late entrants rush in and early holders exit.
Maartunn, another respected market observer, noted that unrealized profits among Bitcoin holders have reached 57%, inching closer to the March 2024 peak of 69%. When large portions of the network are sitting on substantial gains, the incentive to sell grows—especially if negative catalysts emerge.
Potential Downside Targets: $91,583 and $85,610
According to Martinez, if the sell signal confirms and Bitcoin fails to reclaim momentum above $100,535, a decline could follow in stages:
- First support level: $91,583
- Deeper correction target: $85,610
A drop to $85,610 would represent a 12.64% decline from current levels—significant but not uncommon following extended rallies. Such corrections are often healthy, allowing new buyers to enter and reducing froth in the market.
Still, it's important to note that technical signals aren't guarantees. If bullish momentum returns and BTC sustains a close above $100,535, the sell signal could be invalidated, potentially paving the way for further gains.
Bullish Catalysts That Could Sustain the Rally
Despite growing correction warnings, several fundamental and macro-level factors continue to support upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
Trump Election Boosts Crypto Sentiment
Recent political developments have energized the crypto community. Enthusiasm surrounding Donald Trump’s electoral victory has been interpreted as favorable for digital assets. Unlike previous administrations with skeptical stances, Trump has positioned himself as pro-innovation and supportive of blockchain technology—a shift that could lead to more favorable regulatory clarity in the U.S.
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Spot Bitcoin ETFs Drive Institutional Demand
Another major driver has been the surge in inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Analysts project that by early 2025, total assets under management (AUM) in Bitcoin ETFs could surpass those of gold-backed ETFs—a milestone underscoring growing institutional adoption.
These ETFs provide regulated exposure to BTC without custody risks, making them attractive to pension funds, hedge funds, and retail investors alike. Continued inflows suggest strong underlying demand even during periods of price consolidation.
Current Bitcoin Market Overview
As of now, Bitcoin trades at $98,213**, reflecting a slight 0.44% dip over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data. Daily trading volume stands at **$44.02 billion, down 43.14% from recent highs—typical during consolidation phases after sharp rallies.
With a market capitalization of $1.95 trillion, Bitcoin maintains its dominance as the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency. Long-term investors remain in strong profit territory, with a 45.06% gain over the past 30 days.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is causing the predicted Bitcoin price correction?
A: A combination of technical indicators—like the TD Sequential sell signal—and market sentiment extremes (such as high RSI and Fear & Greed Index readings)—suggest that profit-taking may trigger a short-term pullback.
Q: How low could Bitcoin fall if the correction happens?
A: Analysts project initial support at $91,583, with a deeper drop to $85,610 possible if selling pressure intensifies and key resistance levels aren’t reclaimed.
Q: Can Bitcoin avoid the correction?
A: Yes. If BTC closes above $100,535 on the 12-hour chart, the bearish signal may be invalidated, allowing the uptrend to continue.
Q: Are spot Bitcoin ETFs influencing the price?
A: Absolutely. Rising inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reflect growing institutional interest and are contributing to sustained demand.
Q: Is a high Fear & Greed Index bad for Bitcoin?
A: Not necessarily—but readings above 75 ("extreme greed") often precede volatility or pullbacks as markets become overheated.
Q: Should I sell Bitcoin before a correction?
A: Timing the market is risky. Instead of reacting to short-term predictions, consider your investment horizon and risk tolerance. Dollar-cost averaging or setting stop-loss orders can help manage exposure.
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